A brilliant post by
Chris Bowers cuts through the confusion to explain why Dem approval numbers are not higher and how that doesn't detract from the fact that Dems are in great shape for 2006. In a nutshell:
Polls like these are the most often cited examples of the third myth I am dealing with in this series: that while Republicans are faltering, voters are not turning to Democrats. Like the other two myths I discussed in this series, that other Presidents have recovered from similar low approval ratings, and that the country is equally polarized by Republicans and Democrats, this one is also a myth.
Voters are turning to Democrats as they turn away from Republicans. The first place one can find evidence of this was in the 2005 elections, where Democrats did very well across the country in actual elections. One would think that these results alone would have dispelled this myth, but apparently not.
. . . Democrats hold sizable leads in generic ballot polls, and as I have blogged a million times, these polls matter. Democrats even hold sizable leads in leaked internal Republican polls on the generic ballot. Why then, some will ask, are congressional Democrats not polling higher than Republicans when it comes to favorablity and job approval?
The answer lies in the weak favorability and job approval Democrats receive from their own base--the same base that plans on voting for them anyway. While Democrats are crushing Republicans among Independents, and while congressional Democrats receive a noticeably higher job approval from Republicans than Republican congressional leaders receive from Democrats, Democratic congressional leaders are not well thought of by Democrats themselves.
Read the whole thing. Tremendous post.
Of course, the lesson one learns from this is critical -- where Dems can REALLY improve their performance is by being sure to energize the base in 2006.
Yep. The Politics of Contrast. (See my 8 million posts on the subject.)